Climate & Displacement
Where will people go when the climate changes?
We already track where displacement is happening. Now we're mapping where it's going.
Housing precarity and climate risk don't operate independently — they compound.
Rising seas, expanding wildfire corridors, and drought-stricken regions are quietly pushing the most vulnerable households toward new communities. But many of those receiving communities face their own affordability crises. The people with the fewest options end up in the most dangerous places — or get displaced when safer places become expensive.
At CiDR Lab, we're extending the Housing Precarity Risk Model (HPRM) — our nationwide census-tract-level index of eviction and displacement risk — to meet climate vulnerability head-on. The data infrastructure already exists. The questions are just beginning.
What we bring to this
- HPRM: nationwide tract-level housing precarity index
- Data Axle: proprietary migration flows by income tier
- Bayesian ML infrastructure ready for climate predictors
- Peer-reviewed co-authorship on water-climate-housing nexus
- 15+ years of displacement research across 15+ states
Five questions that matter
Where are climate hazard and housing displacement risk highest at the same time?
Which tracts are climate refuge areas — low hazard, affordable, and not already under displacement pressure?
Are climate migrants already flowing into those refuge tracts — and can we see it in household migration data?
What happens to housing costs in receiving communities when climate migrants arrive?
Where will water scarcity in California directly collide with state housing production mandates?
"Precarity has
no boundaries."
"Will there be water? Climate change, housing needs, and future water demand in California."
Wilson, T.S., Selmants, P.C., Boynton, R.M., Thorne, J.H., Van Schmidt, N.D., & Thomas, T.A. (2024). Journal of Environmental Management, 369, 122256.
This study found that declining groundwater balance in California's Central Coast — particularly Monterey and San Luis Obispo counties — directly conflicts with Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) mandates under both hot/dry and warm/wet climate futures. Housing production and water supply are on a collision course, and low-income renters will bear the impact first.
Research & tools in development
Six applications of the HPRM framework to climate vulnerability and displacement.
Climate-Enhanced HPRM Dashboard
Merge HPRM with the Climate Vulnerability Index (184 indicators) and FEMA National Risk Index (18 hazard types) at the census tract level. An interactive map showing where housing precarity and climate risk co-occur — and where they're decoupled, revealing potential refuge areas. Anti-displacement planning tool for cities and housing authorities.
Climate Refuge Areas Index
Invert the question: where can displaced low-income people actually afford to land? Identify tracts that are low climate hazard, affordable, not already under displacement pressure, and empirically receiving climate migrants — confirmed via the proprietary Data Axle migration panel.
Climate Gentrification Early Warning System
Track property value appreciation in climate-resilient areas. Flag resilience infrastructure-triggered rent increases. Monitor post-disaster speculative investment before it displaces long-term residents from newly attractive neighborhoods.
Climate-Housing-Financial Risk Dashboard
Map climate-exposed mortgage portfolios at the tract level. Connect to Community Reinvestment Act compliance — the January 2026 CRA modernization makes climate resilience CRA-eligible. Audience: Federal Reserve, FHFA, regional lenders, and community reinvestment advocates.
Climate Migration Forecasting Model
A gravity model combining historical Data Axle migration flows with climate projections to forecast future displacement pressure at 5-, 10-, 20-, and 30-year horizons under multiple climate scenarios. Identifies both origin and destination tracts.
California Water-Housing Precarity Model
Extend the LUCAS-CGW water demand model to incorporate HPRM. Identify where water scarcity will constrain California's Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) mandates. County-level housing production scenarios under both hot/dry and warm/wet futures. In collaboration with USGS.
This work is early-stage.
We're actively seeking research collaborators, data partners, and funding partners working at the intersection of climate resilience, housing policy, and community planning.